Over the past week, Bitcoin has shown a significant increase of 14.5%, reaching a new high of $42,000 yesterday. This surge has sparked active discussions among traders and analysts, especially after the liquidation of Bitcoin short futures worth $100 million in 24 hours. However, analyzing data on BTC derivative financial instruments, it becomes clear that attention should be paid to activity in the spot market, not futures.
During the same period, only $200 million of short BTC futures were liquidated, which is only 1% of the total volume of open contracts. This is insignificant compared to the total trading volume of $190 billion for the same period. Despite the significant growth of Bitcoin, the futures and options markets remain relatively calm, and there are no compelling reasons to expect a mass liquidation of short contracts, even if Bitcoin exceeds the $43,500 mark.
Analysis of financial indicators such as the funding rate and the basis rate of futures does not give clear signs that exceeding the $43,000 mark will lead to significant losses. For example, the peak premium of fixed BTC futures contracts reached 12% on December 4, but is currently at 11%. This remains within reasonable limits, considering the current bullish momentum, and does not confirm the assumption that the rally is mainly driven by Bitcoin derivatives.
Thus, considering the rapid growth of almost 15% and the liquidation of short futures contracts for $200 million, it becomes obvious that the main support for growth comes from the spot market and the reduction of available coin supply on exchanges. Over the past week, exchanges recorded a net outflow of 8,275 BTC, confirming active accumulation in the spot market and a decrease in the available supply of coins, affecting price growth.
