By October 13th, the SEC must either appeal to the US Supreme Court, demand a review of the decision from the District of Columbia Circuit Court, or consider Grayscale’s proposal to convert its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a spot Bitcoin ETF. Despite experts expressing doubts about the likelihood of an appeal from the regulator, analysts point to possible ways for the SEC to once again delay its decision.
Bloomberg analyst, Eric Balchunas, opined that an appeal is highly unlikely, but other scenarios are not ruled out. His colleague, James Seyffart, emphasized that although the SEC’s attempt to reject the application on new grounds is a “very complex task,” the regulator might “find ways to continue postponing” the process. Previously, the law firm Ropes & Grey commented that the GBTC application could be returned for review to the SEC, providing the regulator with an additional opportunity to reject it for other reasons.
Currently, at least seven Bitcoin ETF applications are awaiting approval from the regulator. Even though all of them were submitted to the regulator before 2023, all have encountered obstacles and delays from the SEC, pushing the final approval deadlines for most of them to around March 2024 or later. All eyes are on Grayscale’s spot application for converting the Bitcoin ETF because, if the SEC approves it, the regulator will find it difficult to find grounds to deny other applications. Bloomberg analysts, updating their forecasts after Grayscale’s court victory, estimate a 75% chance of the spot Bitcoin ETF being approved this year, and 95% by the end of 2024.
